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Arizona prosecutors have filed charges against prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging the company ran an unlicensed gambling operation and accepted illegal election wagers within the state. Prediction Market Kalshi Charged in Arizona for Sports and Election Betting Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes on March 17 filed a 20-count criminal information in Maricopa County Superior Court … Read more
The Argentine justice system has ordered a nationwide block on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction market platforms, after a contract estimating February’s inflation numbers registered a trend reversion 15 minutes before the official release, hinting at a possible insider leak. Argentina Bans Polymarket, Becomes First Country in Latam to Do So Argentina has become … Read more
Prediction markets gained attention for their accuracy in forecasting events but now face scrutiny over allegations of insider trading and ethical concerns. Industry leaders like Amit Mahensaria advocate for a balance between self-regulation and necessary government oversight to ensure ethical standards while supporting innovation. The Debate Over Innovation and Oversight Since surging into the mainstream … Read more
Prediction markets have a funny habit of saying the quiet part out loud, and right now the betting pits of the internet are whispering, shouting, and occasionally cackling about one thing: just how high bitcoin might climb before 2026 is done with us. Crypto Crystal Ball: Prediction Markets Reveal Bitcoin Price Odds for March and … Read more
Kalshi and Polymarket anticipate that the Democratic Party will sweep both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections slated for November. There is a close to 50% chance of this outcome, while the second option, where Democrats win the House but lose the Senate, reaches 37%. Blue Sweep: Prediction Markets Anticipate a Democrat … Read more
U.S. regulators move to rein in fast-growing prediction markets as event-based derivatives gain traction, with the CFTC warning exchanges to strengthen surveillance, prevent manipulation, and ensure new contracts tied to real-world outcomes meet federal trading rules. CFTC Issues New Guidance Signaling Major Expansion for US Prediction Markets Growing interest in event-based derivatives has drawn new … Read more
Betting companies have reportedly asked regulators to pause the operations of prediction market platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, in Brazil. The betting lobby argues that prediction market contracts constitute bets and should be blocked, as these platforms are unlicensed in the country. Betting Lobby Attacks Prediction Markets in Brazil Betting companies have taken action … Read more
U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff has introduced a bill which aims to ban betting on war, terrorism and death in prediction markets. Risks of Market Manipulation and Insider Trading U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., has introduced a new bill restricting prediction markets from allowing traders to bet on war, terrorism and death. The legislation, formally titled … Read more
After President Lula proposed a ban on online betting platforms in Brazil, as the country faces a gambling epidemic, unregulated prediction markets may be hurt. Analysts agree that these platforms operate in a “gray area” as there is no specific law overseeing them. Lula’s Proposed Ban on Online Casinos Might Hurt the Incipient Prediction Market … Read more
Prediction markets tracking U.S. politics are heating up as traders wager millions on the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race, with activity on Polymarket and Kalshi revealing how bettors think Washington’s next political chapter might unfold. Traders Rotate Bets as Democrats Lead Midterm Odds and Rubio, Newsom Rise in 2028 Race The “Balance of … Read more