Prediction markets

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AI Firm Palantir Partners With Polymarket to Build Advanced Monitoring System for Sports Prediction Trading

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Polymarket said Tuesday it has partnered with Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to build a new artificial intelligence (AI)-driven platform designed to monitor and protect the integrity of sports prediction markets. AI Meets Sports Betting Oversight as Polymarket Teams With Palantir for Integrity Tools The New York-based prediction market operator Polymarket announced the collaboration on … Read more

Kalshi Partners With XP to Launch Prediction Markets in Brazil

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Customers of Clear, a brand of the XP Group, who hold an international investment account, will be able to participate in regulated prediction markets. XP is the first company to bring regulated prediction markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financial and economic events. Kalshi Partners With XP to Bring Regulated Prediction Markets to … Read more

Report: Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Eye $20B Valuations as Investor Interest Builds

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According to a recent report, the two heavyweight prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, are said to be chatting with prospective backers about fresh fundraising rounds. Current figures place Kalshi’s valuation near $11 billion and Polymarket’s around $9 billion, and if capital does come calling, each company is eyeing a lofty $20 billion post-money valuation. Polymarket … Read more

Legal Storm Hits Kalshi as Traders Claim ‘Death Carveout’ Erased Their Winning Bets

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Traders are suing prediction market Kalshi after a controversial contract tied to Iran’s supreme leader sparked a payout dispute, igniting legal questions about how geopolitical event markets resolve outcomes and interpret rules. Traders Sue Kalshi, Claim Prediction Market Platform Uses ‘Death Carveout’ to Escape Massive Payouts Traders are challenging a prediction market platform after alleging … Read more

Wartime Snapshot: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Iran Conflict

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Prediction markets tracking the escalating Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran are humming with activity on Tuesday, as traders funnel more than $230 million into bets tied to regime change, military escalation, and diplomatic outcomes. Polymarket Traders Price 42% Chance of Iranian Regime Collapse by June 30 On Polymarket, the headline-grabbing … Read more

Proposal to Regulate Prediction Markets Gains Steam After Insider Trading Allegations Involving Iran War

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Senator Chris Murphy has proposed regulating prediction markets after allegations of insider trading by people close to the Trump Administration. According to Bubblemaps, six insiders profited close to $1.2 million betting on the U.S. strike on Iran just hours before it happened. Senator Chris Murphy Vows to Regulate Prediction Markets After Insider Trading Allegations The … Read more

Nasdaq Seeks SEC Approval to Launch Prediction-Style Index Options

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Nasdaq is seeking SEC approval to list fixed-payout Outcome-Related Options tied to the Nasdaq-100 indexes, a move that could expand binary-style derivatives in U.S. markets under securities oversight. Nasdaq Plans Fixed-Payout Binary Outcome Contracts Across Flagship Indexes A new regulatory filing could broaden the scope of binary-style derivatives available on U.S. options markets. Nasdaq MRX … Read more

‘A Scam’: Kalshi Might Face Legal Actions Regarding Iran’s Regime Change Market Resolution

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While Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour explained that the company did not list markets tied to the death of any personality because it goes against U.S. regulations, users are preparing legal actions against the company over the market settlement. Kalshi Might Face Legal Action Over Iran’s Regime Change Market Settlement Kalshi, one of the largest regulated … Read more

Did Prediction Market Traders See It Coming? Big Wins and Bigger Losses Follow Iran Strike

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Prediction markets are crackling with activity after the United States, in coordination with Israel, carried out major airstrikes against Iran. At present, traders are pricing in a 46% probability that the Iranian regime will fall by June 30, and following the latest strike, it emerged that several market participants pocketed gains by calling the timing … Read more

CFTC Cracks Down on Prediction Market Abuse as Insider Trading Cases Surface on Kalshi

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Federal regulators are emphasizing oversight expectations for prediction markets, using recent enforcement activity on KalshiEX to signal that event contract trading faces the same insider trading, fraud, and market integrity standards as traditional derivatives markets. Kalshi Cases Prompt Federal Reminder: Prediction Markets Face Traditional Market Rules Federal derivatives regulators continue to scrutinize trading activity on … Read more

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