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Markets have priced out every Federal Reserve rate cut for 2026 as a U.S.-Israel war with Iran sends oil past $110 per barrel and consumer gas prices toward $4 a gallon. Key Takeaways: Fed funds futures on CME show a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting. WTI … Read more
Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have placed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the 2026 Iran War, with U.S. entry into Iran now carrying 90% odds and over $115 million in trading volume. Key Takeaways: Polymarket traders have placed $115M on U.S. forces entering Iran by Dec. 31, … Read more
Polymarket has integrated Pyth Network as the resolution source for a new category of traditional asset markets on its prediction platform, giving traders a data-backed way to speculate on U.S. equities, commodities, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Pyth Terminal Goes Live as Polymarket Adds Daily Close Markets for U.S. Stocks The partnership, announced Thursday, covers daily … Read more
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois on April 2, 2026, seeking to permanently block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms. U.S. Government Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Rules, Seeks Permanent Injunction The complaint, filed in … Read more
According to polls conducted in the mid-to-late stretch of March 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have edged lower, weighed by the Iran conflict and ongoing economic concerns. At the same time, prediction markets tied to the prospect of Trump facing impeachment before his term concludes have registered a clear increase in activity this … Read more
The Pentagon is moving tens of thousands of troops into the Middle East and drawing up contingency plans for limited ground raids inside Iran, but no U.S. forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 29, 2026, at 5 p.m. Eastern time. What Trump Is Deciding About Iran Ground Troops — And What Has Actually … Read more
California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Friday barring gubernatorial appointees from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. California Bans Gubernatorial Appointees From Betting on Prediction Markets With Non-Public Information The order takes effect immediately. It extends California’s existing conflict-of-interest statutes directly to prediction markets, which … Read more
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, fulfilling the final obligations of a structured investment program the NYSE operator announced in October 2025. ICE and Polymarket The owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), ICE, disclosed the transaction on Friday morning. The company also expects to purchase … Read more
According to a report from the New York Times (NYT), a 15-point framework aimed at resolving the conflict in the Middle East was presented to Iran, and markets have since settled following the earlier bout of volatility. At the same time, participants in prediction markets are placing bets on the likelihood of a ceasefire and … Read more
Gate has integrated Polymarket into its app, becoming the first centralized exchange to offer direct access to the prediction market platform. The rollout gives users a new way to trade on global events across crypto, finance, and sports. Prediction Markets Now Open to Mainstream Traders Via Gate Gate has added Polymarket to its platform, potentially … Read more