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Prediction market traders have placed more than $100 million in combined volume across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad on where bitcoin’s price lands in May 2026 and beyond, with crowd odds pointing to a market stuck below $85,000 for the near term. Traders Put $37M on Bitcoin All-Time High Milestones as $150K Odds Sit at 1% … Read more
Nine linked Polymarket accounts earned over $2.4 million with an unprecedented 98% win rate by betting on the exact timing of U.S. military operations in Iran. The Rise of Geopolitical Betting Nine linked accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by wagering almost exclusively on the timing of U.S. military actions … Read more
Prediction market traders have placed more than $5.5 million in combined volume on the Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary, with challenger Ed Gallrein holding a narrow edge over seven-term incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie ahead of Tuesday’s vote. Gallrein Pulls Ahead of Massie on Polymarket and Kalshi in Kentucky House Race On Polymarket, the KY-04 … Read more
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a blanket no-action letter this week, relieving prediction market operators from swap data reporting and recordkeeping obligations tied to fully collateralized event contracts. CFTC Issues Blanket No-Action Letter Cutting SDR Reporting for Event Contracts The CFTC‘s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk jointly announced … Read more
The global community of speculators and digital currency enthusiasts is currently pouring millions of dollars into prediction markets to determine if and when bitcoin will clinch the elusive $150,000 price point. As of May 12, 2026, the prediction platform Polymarket has recorded a staggering $18,360,481 in total trading volume for its primary $150,000 target market. … Read more
The prediction market sector posted $8.6 billion in taker volume during April 2026, with Kalshi overtaking Polymarket to claim the top spot, according to onchain data tracked by Dune Analytics. Key Takeaways: Kalshi posted $5.42B in April 2026 taker volume, surpassing Polymarket’s $1.99B for the first time. Polymarket collected $29.22M in April fees despite trailing … Read more
According to Certik’s Stefan Muehlbauer, the recent indictment of an Army sergeant for using nonpublic information to bet on Polymarket establishes a precedent: misappropriating government or corporate data now carries the same legal weight as Wall Street securities fraud. Key Takeaways: The DOJ charged Army Sgt. Van Dyke for using classified data to net over … Read more
The United States Senate took decisive action on Thursday to prevent lawmakers from wagering on the very outcomes they influence by unanimously passing a resolution to ban sitting senators from participating in prediction markets. Key Takeaways: Sen. Bernie Moreno led the U.S. Senate to pass a unanimous ban on prediction market trading on April 30, … Read more
Polymarket, the prediction marketplace giant, has officially selected blockchain surveillance firm Chainalysis to deploy a first-of-its-kind onchain solution for monitoring market integrity. Key Takeaways: Polymarket selected Chainalysis to deploy a first-of-its-kind onchain solution for monitoring trading activity. The 2024 partnership introduces bespoke anomaly models to detect insider trading patterns on public blockchains. Polymarket aims to … Read more
Polymarket is in active talks with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to remove a ban that has kept its primary blockchain-based exchange away from American traders since 2022, Bloomberg reported. Key Takeaways: Polymarket held discussions with the CFTC in recent weeks to lift its 2022 ban and bring its main exchange to U.S. … Read more