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Prediction Market Showdown: CFTC and DOJ Challenge Illinois State Gambling Authority in Federal Court

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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois on April 2, 2026, seeking to permanently block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms. U.S. Government Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Rules, Seeks Permanent Injunction The complaint, filed in … Read more

Trump Impeachment Odds Rise to 70% on Polymarket Amid Falling Approval and Iran War Concerns

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According to polls conducted in the mid-to-late stretch of March 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have edged lower, weighed by the Iran conflict and ongoing economic concerns. At the same time, prediction markets tied to the prospect of Trump facing impeachment before his term concludes have registered a clear increase in activity this … Read more

US Troops in Region Top 50,000 as Polymarket Gives 71% Odds Forces Enter Iran by April 30

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The Pentagon is moving tens of thousands of troops into the Middle East and drawing up contingency plans for limited ground raids inside Iran, but no U.S. forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 29, 2026, at 5 p.m. Eastern time. What Trump Is Deciding About Iran Ground Troops — And What Has Actually … Read more

California Governor Bars Policymakers From Insider Betting on Prediction Markets

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Friday barring gubernatorial appointees from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. California Bans Gubernatorial Appointees From Betting on Prediction Markets With Non-Public Information The order takes effect immediately. It extends California’s existing conflict-of-interest statutes directly to prediction markets, which … Read more

Polymarket Secures $600M From Intercontinental Exchange in Final Funding Tranche

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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, fulfilling the final obligations of a structured investment program the NYSE operator announced in October 2025. ICE and Polymarket The owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), ICE, disclosed the transaction on Friday morning. The company also expects to purchase … Read more

Iran Ceasefire Odds Climb on Polymarket as Trump Signals Negotiations With Tehran

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According to a report from the New York Times (NYT), a 15-point framework aimed at resolving the conflict in the Middle East was presented to Iran, and markets have since settled following the earlier bout of volatility. At the same time, participants in prediction markets are placing bets on the likelihood of a ceasefire and … Read more

Markets Flip Script as Fed Hike Odds Overtake Cuts for First Time in 2026 Cycle

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Markets have sharply repriced Federal Reserve expectations, with near-term rate hike probabilities now edging out cuts for the first time since the easing cycle began. Rate Expectations Shift Sharply as Fed Holds and Markets Reassess The shift, captured by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s Market Probability Tracker, marks a notable turn from early 2026, when … Read more

Polymarket Implements Updated Rules Targeting Insider Trading Activities

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Polymarket is launching updated rules that prohibit users from participating in their event contracts if they are trading on stolen information, on illegal tips, or if they can influence the outcome of the event, strengthening its compliance across both its DeFi platform and CFTC-regulated exchange. Polymarket Targets Insider Trading Practices With Updated Rules Polymarket, one … Read more

Report: Federal Lawmakers Move to Close Prediction Market Betting Loopholes

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Congress is stepping into the fast-growing prediction market arena, aiming to draw a hard line between financial contracts and what lawmakers say looks a lot like gambling. Prediction Markets Under Fire as Senate Eyes Sports Betting Ban According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal and Sports Business Journal, U.S. Senators Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and … Read more

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