Bookmarking Crypto Insights
Auto Added by WPeMatico
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a fragile truce, with over $16.5 million wagered on when or whether Washington will officially close the books on its military campaign against Tehran. Key Takeaways: Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran military operations market hit $16.4M in volume, with April 30 carrying 42% odds. Kalshi gives only a 16% chance … Read more
Trump struck a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026, and within hours, blockchain analysts were asking who knew first. Key Takeaways: Trump’s April 7 ceasefire with Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices below $100 and triggering a bitcoin rally. Polymarket wallets with near-zero history turned as little as $10k into … Read more
Despite the hype surrounding massive payouts, a report by Andrey Sergeenkov reveals that 84.1% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. The report shows that high earnings are extremely rare: only 2% have made over $1,000, and a tiny 0.033% have cleared $100,000. Key Takeaways: A new study found that 84.1% of all 2.5 million Polymarket users … Read more
By the numbers, prediction markets recorded their second-highest notional volume over a two-year period. Data compiled by Dune Analytics shows that roughly seven platforms tallied $25.7 billion in notional volume in March, with most of that activity concentrated on Polymarket and Kalshi. Key Takeaways: Dune Analytics logs $25.7B March volume; Polymarket, Kalshi dominate as activity … Read more
Polymarket announced on Monday that it is replacing bridged USDC.e with a new 1:1 USDC-backed collateral token called Polymarket USD, paired with a rebuilt order book and upgraded smart contracts under CTF Exchange V2. Key Takeaways: Polymarket launched Polymarket USD on April 6, 2026, replacing bridged USDC.e as collateral across all prediction markets. The CTF … Read more
Polymarket will become La Liga’s official prediction market partner in the U.S. and Canada, giving it exclusive rights to use the league’s and each club’s intellectual property when displaying soccer matches. La Liga becomes the first European football league to partner with Polymarket. Key Takeaways: Polymarket struck a deal with La Liga, boosting market engagement … Read more
Polymarket removed a live prediction market tied to the rescue status of a missing U.S. airman on April 3, 2026, after Rep. Seth Moulton publicly condemned it as exploitative of an active military search-and-rescue operation. Key Takeaways: Polymarket pulled a bet on a missing U.S. airman’s rescue on April 3, 2026, after Rep. Seth Moulton … Read more
Markets have priced out every Federal Reserve rate cut for 2026 as a U.S.-Israel war with Iran sends oil past $110 per barrel and consumer gas prices toward $4 a gallon. Key Takeaways: Fed funds futures on CME show a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting. WTI … Read more
Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have placed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the 2026 Iran War, with U.S. entry into Iran now carrying 90% odds and over $115 million in trading volume. Key Takeaways: Polymarket traders have placed $115M on U.S. forces entering Iran by Dec. 31, … Read more
Polymarket has integrated Pyth Network as the resolution source for a new category of traditional asset markets on its prediction platform, giving traders a data-backed way to speculate on U.S. equities, commodities, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Pyth Terminal Goes Live as Polymarket Adds Daily Close Markets for U.S. Stocks The partnership, announced Thursday, covers daily … Read more