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Prediction markets tracking the escalating Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran are humming with activity on Tuesday, as traders funnel more than $230 million into bets tied to regime change, military escalation, and diplomatic outcomes. Polymarket Traders Price 42% Chance of Iranian Regime Collapse by June 30 On Polymarket, the headline-grabbing … Read more
Senator Chris Murphy has proposed regulating prediction markets after allegations of insider trading by people close to the Trump Administration. According to Bubblemaps, six insiders profited close to $1.2 million betting on the U.S. strike on Iran just hours before it happened. Senator Chris Murphy Vows to Regulate Prediction Markets After Insider Trading Allegations The … Read more
Nasdaq is seeking SEC approval to list fixed-payout Outcome-Related Options tied to the Nasdaq-100 indexes, a move that could expand binary-style derivatives in U.S. markets under securities oversight. Nasdaq Plans Fixed-Payout Binary Outcome Contracts Across Flagship Indexes A new regulatory filing could broaden the scope of binary-style derivatives available on U.S. options markets. Nasdaq MRX … Read more
While Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour explained that the company did not list markets tied to the death of any personality because it goes against U.S. regulations, users are preparing legal actions against the company over the market settlement. Kalshi Might Face Legal Action Over Iran’s Regime Change Market Settlement Kalshi, one of the largest regulated … Read more
Prediction markets are crackling with activity after the United States, in coordination with Israel, carried out major airstrikes against Iran. At present, traders are pricing in a 46% probability that the Iranian regime will fall by June 30, and following the latest strike, it emerged that several market participants pocketed gains by calling the timing … Read more
Federal regulators are emphasizing oversight expectations for prediction markets, using recent enforcement activity on KalshiEX to signal that event contract trading faces the same insider trading, fraud, and market integrity standards as traditional derivatives markets. Kalshi Cases Prompt Federal Reminder: Prediction Markets Face Traditional Market Rules Federal derivatives regulators continue to scrutinize trading activity on … Read more
The prediction market platform Kalshi had revealed that it recently banned and fined a former California gubernatorial candidate and a Mrbeast Youtube editor for insider trading. Detection and Surveillance The prediction market platform Kalshi announced Feb. 25 that it has blocked a former California gubernatorial candidate and an editor for the Youtube channel Mrbeast for … Read more
All eyes are fixed on President Trump’s next move after the Supreme Court ruled he lacked authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to slap sweeping “emergency” tariffs on nearly all imports. Now, prediction markets reveal bettors tossing down stacks, wagering on what comes next in this high-stakes political sequel. Markets Bet … Read more
Polymarket has acquired Dome in a bid to supercharge its developer ecosystem and tighten its grip on the fast-growing prediction markets sector. Polymarket Aims to Strengthen Tech Stack With Dome Buy On Friday, Polymarket confirmed it purchased Dome, a Y Combinator-backed startup focused on unified API infrastructure for prediction markets. Financial terms were not disclosed, … Read more
The paper, which examined several prediction markets on the platform, concluded that Kalshi, as a regulated platform, provided a valid and accurate benchmark for macroeconomic figures, surpassing surveys and forecasts by providing data not available from other sources. Kalshi Receives Praise as an Alternative to Predict Macroeconomic Variables The prediction market phenomenon is changing how … Read more