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Kalshi and Polymarket anticipate that the Democratic Party will sweep both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections slated for November. There is a close to 50% chance of this outcome, while the second option, where Democrats win the House but lose the Senate, reaches 37%. Blue Sweep: Prediction Markets Anticipate a Democrat … Read more
U.S. regulators move to rein in fast-growing prediction markets as event-based derivatives gain traction, with the CFTC warning exchanges to strengthen surveillance, prevent manipulation, and ensure new contracts tied to real-world outcomes meet federal trading rules. CFTC Issues New Guidance Signaling Major Expansion for US Prediction Markets Growing interest in event-based derivatives has drawn new … Read more
Betting companies have reportedly asked regulators to pause the operations of prediction market platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, in Brazil. The betting lobby argues that prediction market contracts constitute bets and should be blocked, as these platforms are unlicensed in the country. Betting Lobby Attacks Prediction Markets in Brazil Betting companies have taken action … Read more
U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff has introduced a bill which aims to ban betting on war, terrorism and death in prediction markets. Risks of Market Manipulation and Insider Trading U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., has introduced a new bill restricting prediction markets from allowing traders to bet on war, terrorism and death. The legislation, formally titled … Read more
After President Lula proposed a ban on online betting platforms in Brazil, as the country faces a gambling epidemic, unregulated prediction markets may be hurt. Analysts agree that these platforms operate in a “gray area” as there is no specific law overseeing them. Lula’s Proposed Ban on Online Casinos Might Hurt the Incipient Prediction Market … Read more
Prediction markets tracking U.S. politics are heating up as traders wager millions on the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race, with activity on Polymarket and Kalshi revealing how bettors think Washington’s next political chapter might unfold. Traders Rotate Bets as Democrats Lead Midterm Odds and Rubio, Newsom Rise in 2028 Race The “Balance of … Read more
Polymarket said Tuesday it has partnered with Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to build a new artificial intelligence (AI)-driven platform designed to monitor and protect the integrity of sports prediction markets. AI Meets Sports Betting Oversight as Polymarket Teams With Palantir for Integrity Tools The New York-based prediction market operator Polymarket announced the collaboration on … Read more
Customers of Clear, a brand of the XP Group, who hold an international investment account, will be able to participate in regulated prediction markets. XP is the first company to bring regulated prediction markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financial and economic events. Kalshi Partners With XP to Bring Regulated Prediction Markets to … Read more
According to a recent report, the two heavyweight prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, are said to be chatting with prospective backers about fresh fundraising rounds. Current figures place Kalshi’s valuation near $11 billion and Polymarket’s around $9 billion, and if capital does come calling, each company is eyeing a lofty $20 billion post-money valuation. Polymarket … Read more
Traders are suing prediction market Kalshi after a controversial contract tied to Iran’s supreme leader sparked a payout dispute, igniting legal questions about how geopolitical event markets resolve outcomes and interpret rules. Traders Sue Kalshi, Claim Prediction Market Platform Uses ‘Death Carveout’ to Escape Massive Payouts Traders are challenging a prediction market platform after alleging … Read more