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By the numbers, prediction markets recorded their second-highest notional volume over a two-year period. Data compiled by Dune Analytics shows that roughly seven platforms tallied $25.7 billion in notional volume in March, with most of that activity concentrated on Polymarket and Kalshi. Key Takeaways: Dune Analytics logs $25.7B March volume; Polymarket, Kalshi dominate as activity … Read more
Polymarket announced on Monday that it is replacing bridged USDC.e with a new 1:1 USDC-backed collateral token called Polymarket USD, paired with a rebuilt order book and upgraded smart contracts under CTF Exchange V2. Key Takeaways: Polymarket launched Polymarket USD on April 6, 2026, replacing bridged USDC.e as collateral across all prediction markets. The CTF … Read more
A federal appeals court ruled Monday that New Jersey cannot use state gambling law to shut down Kalshi’s sports prediction market, handing the federally regulated platform a significant legal win. Key Takeaways: A Third Circuit appeals court ruled 2-1 on April 6, 2026, that federal law blocks New Jersey from enforcing state gambling rules against … Read more
Polymarket will become La Liga’s official prediction market partner in the U.S. and Canada, giving it exclusive rights to use the league’s and each club’s intellectual property when displaying soccer matches. La Liga becomes the first European football league to partner with Polymarket. Key Takeaways: Polymarket struck a deal with La Liga, boosting market engagement … Read more
Polymarket removed a live prediction market tied to the rescue status of a missing U.S. airman on April 3, 2026, after Rep. Seth Moulton publicly condemned it as exploitative of an active military search-and-rescue operation. Key Takeaways: Polymarket pulled a bet on a missing U.S. airman’s rescue on April 3, 2026, after Rep. Seth Moulton … Read more
A Nevada judge has extended a ban on Kalshi, ruling its event contracts are indistinguishable from illegal gambling. Key Takeaways Judge Jason Woodbury issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi in Carson City on April 3, 2026. The Nevada Gaming Control Board successfully argued that event contracts require a state gaming license. Kalshi must implement mandatory … Read more
Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have placed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the 2026 Iran War, with U.S. entry into Iran now carrying 90% odds and over $115 million in trading volume. Key Takeaways: Polymarket traders have placed $115M on U.S. forces entering Iran by Dec. 31, … Read more
Polymarket has integrated Pyth Network as the resolution source for a new category of traditional asset markets on its prediction platform, giving traders a data-backed way to speculate on U.S. equities, commodities, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Pyth Terminal Goes Live as Polymarket Adds Daily Close Markets for U.S. Stocks The partnership, announced Thursday, covers daily … Read more
Federal authorities have launched a coordinated legal offensive to cement control over prediction markets, challenging state interventions and raising the stakes for how event contracts are governed across U.S. derivatives markets. CFTC-DOJ Lawsuits Target State Control Over Prediction Markets Authority The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the U.S. derivatives regulator, and the Department of Justice … Read more
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois on April 2, 2026, seeking to permanently block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms. U.S. Government Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Rules, Seeks Permanent Injunction The complaint, filed in … Read more