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The prediction market sector posted $8.6 billion in taker volume during April 2026, with Kalshi overtaking Polymarket to claim the top spot, according to onchain data tracked by Dune Analytics. Key Takeaways: Kalshi posted $5.42B in April 2026 taker volume, surpassing Polymarket’s $1.99B for the first time. Polymarket collected $29.22M in April fees despite trailing … Read more
The United States Senate took decisive action on Thursday to prevent lawmakers from wagering on the very outcomes they influence by unanimously passing a resolution to ban sitting senators from participating in prediction markets. Key Takeaways: Sen. Bernie Moreno led the U.S. Senate to pass a unanimous ban on prediction market trading on April 30, … Read more
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a federal lawsuit against Wisconsin on Tuesday, directly challenging the state’s attempt to shut down prediction market platforms operating under CFTC oversight. Key Takeaways: The CFTC sued Wisconsin on April 28, 2026, defending Kalshi and Polymarket against state gambling law enforcement. Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul filed 3 … Read more
Prediction markets and CME futures traders have converged on one outcome ahead of the April 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady, and likely will continue doing so well into the summer. Key Takeaways: CME Fedwatch puts a Fed hold at 99% for the April 29 FOMC meeting, … Read more
CFTC escalates prediction market fight as state challenges intensify across the U.S. The Kalshi case in Massachusetts heightens tensions, with regulators warning states they will see them in court. Key Takeaways: CFTC filing asserts exclusive authority over prediction markets, signaling federal dominance over state challenges ahead. Massachusetts case involving KalshiEx highlights conflict where state enforcement … Read more
State gambling enforcement against Kalshi is being challenged as 38 attorneys general back Massachusetts’ lawsuit. The case could shape whether states can enforce gambling licensing rules against event contracts. Key Takeaways: Coalition of 38 attorneys general supports Massachusetts lawsuit alleging Kalshi enables unlicensed sports betting activity. CFTC filing adds to the dispute as federal regulator … Read more
Kalshi, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated exchange known for its prediction markets, is reportedly preparing to launch crypto perpetual futures for the U.S. market. Key Takeaways: Kalshi plans to launch CFTC-regulated crypto perpetual futures for U.S. traders on April 21, 2026. The move targets a share of the derivatives market after Kalshi’s valuation … Read more
Prediction market traders are putting real money on where bitcoin goes next, and right now, the crowd is split between a short-term bounce and a deeper correction. Key Takeaways: Polymarket shows a 31% chance bitcoin hits $80K in April 2026, making it the most active live bracket with $3.7M in volume. Kalshi traders give bitcoin … Read more
The future of investing may hinge more on probability signals that flag market-moving events before traditional data catches up. Ark Invest’s Kalshi collaboration reflects a growing effort to build faster, forward-looking research tools. Key Takeaways: Ark Invest is using Kalshi data to sharpen event-driven research signals. Prediction markets could boost active stock picking across disruptive … Read more
JD Vance entered the vice presidency with a modest net positive approval rating and has since watched it fall 21 points in roughly 15 months. Key Takeaways: JD Vance’s net job approval dropped 21 points from January 2025 to April 2026, per CNN polling data. Polymarket’s 2028 presidential market hit $521.6M in volume, with Vance … Read more