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Traders are suing prediction market Kalshi after a controversial contract tied to Iran’s supreme leader sparked a payout dispute, igniting legal questions about how geopolitical event markets resolve outcomes and interpret rules. Traders Sue Kalshi, Claim Prediction Market Platform Uses ‘Death Carveout’ to Escape Massive Payouts Traders are challenging a prediction market platform after alleging … Read more
While Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour explained that the company did not list markets tied to the death of any personality because it goes against U.S. regulations, users are preparing legal actions against the company over the market settlement. Kalshi Might Face Legal Action Over Iran’s Regime Change Market Settlement Kalshi, one of the largest regulated … Read more
Prediction markets are crackling with activity after the United States, in coordination with Israel, carried out major airstrikes against Iran. At present, traders are pricing in a 46% probability that the Iranian regime will fall by June 30, and following the latest strike, it emerged that several market participants pocketed gains by calling the timing … Read more
The prediction market platform Kalshi had revealed that it recently banned and fined a former California gubernatorial candidate and a Mrbeast Youtube editor for insider trading. Detection and Surveillance The prediction market platform Kalshi announced Feb. 25 that it has blocked a former California gubernatorial candidate and an editor for the Youtube channel Mrbeast for … Read more
All eyes are fixed on President Trump’s next move after the Supreme Court ruled he lacked authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to slap sweeping “emergency” tariffs on nearly all imports. Now, prediction markets reveal bettors tossing down stacks, wagering on what comes next in this high-stakes political sequel. Markets Bet … Read more
The paper, which examined several prediction markets on the platform, concluded that Kalshi, as a regulated platform, provided a valid and accurate benchmark for macroeconomic figures, surpassing surveys and forecasts by providing data not available from other sources. Kalshi Receives Praise as an Alternative to Predict Macroeconomic Variables The prediction market phenomenon is changing how … Read more
Recent data indicates that nearly a quarter of Draftkings’ sportsbook revenue is now being challenged by the rapid rise of federally regulated prediction market platforms. Sports Prediction Platforms Capture Growing Share of $14B Betting Market Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi have expanded rapidly into sports trading, with sports-related contracts now accounting for roughly 90% … Read more
Traders on Polymarket, Myriad, and Kalshi are putting real money behind their expectations for bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2026. Across seven active contracts with over $84 million in volume, the crowd is signaling cautious optimism — with plenty of hedging along the way. Six-Figure Bitcoin Odds Rise With Time, Prediction Markets Show One of the … Read more
Super Bowl LX delivered more than a Lombardi Trophy — it delivered a stress test for America’s betting industry. As the Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots 29-13, prediction markets piled up record volumes that signaled a measurable shift in how fans wager on the biggest game of the year. Traditional Sportsbooks Trail as … Read more
Jump Trading is set to acquire minority stakes in prediction‑market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. The investments are structured around Jump’s provision of liquidity, with a fixed equity stake in Kalshi and a variable stake in Polymarket that grows with trading capacity. Strategic Market Making in Event Contracts Proprietary trading firm Jump Trading is set to … Read more