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By the numbers, prediction markets recorded their second-highest notional volume over a two-year period. Data compiled by Dune Analytics shows that roughly seven platforms tallied $25.7 billion in notional volume in March, with most of that activity concentrated on Polymarket and Kalshi. Key Takeaways: Dune Analytics logs $25.7B March volume; Polymarket, Kalshi dominate as activity … Read more
A federal appeals court ruled Monday that New Jersey cannot use state gambling law to shut down Kalshi’s sports prediction market, handing the federally regulated platform a significant legal win. Key Takeaways: A Third Circuit appeals court ruled 2-1 on April 6, 2026, that federal law blocks New Jersey from enforcing state gambling rules against … Read more
A Nevada judge has extended a ban on Kalshi, ruling its event contracts are indistinguishable from illegal gambling. Key Takeaways Judge Jason Woodbury issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi in Carson City on April 3, 2026. The Nevada Gaming Control Board successfully argued that event contracts require a state gaming license. Kalshi must implement mandatory … Read more
Markets have priced out every Federal Reserve rate cut for 2026 as a U.S.-Israel war with Iran sends oil past $110 per barrel and consumer gas prices toward $4 a gallon. Key Takeaways: Fed funds futures on CME show a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting. WTI … Read more
Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have placed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the 2026 Iran War, with U.S. entry into Iran now carrying 90% odds and over $115 million in trading volume. Key Takeaways: Polymarket traders have placed $115M on U.S. forces entering Iran by Dec. 31, … Read more
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois on April 2, 2026, seeking to permanently block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms. U.S. Government Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Rules, Seeks Permanent Injunction The complaint, filed in … Read more
According to polls conducted in the mid-to-late stretch of March 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have edged lower, weighed by the Iran conflict and ongoing economic concerns. At the same time, prediction markets tied to the prospect of Trump facing impeachment before his term concludes have registered a clear increase in activity this … Read more
Washington Attorney General Nick Brown filed a civil lawsuit against prediction market platform KalshiEx LLC this week, alleging the company runs an illegal online gambling operation in violation of state law. Is Kalshi Legal in Washington State? AG Says No, Files Suit The complaint, filed in King County Superior Court, targets Kalshi‘s binary event contracts, … Read more
The Pentagon is moving tens of thousands of troops into the Middle East and drawing up contingency plans for limited ground raids inside Iran, but no U.S. forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 29, 2026, at 5 p.m. Eastern time. What Trump Is Deciding About Iran Ground Troops — And What Has Actually … Read more
Kalshi gained regulatory approval to offer margin trading after its affiliate Kinetic Markets LLC was registered as a futures commission merchant with the National Futures Association on March 24, 2026. Kalshi Margin Trading Approved The NFA filing lists Kinetic Markets as both an FCM and swap firm. Bloomberg was the first to report on the … Read more