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According to polls conducted in the mid-to-late stretch of March 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have edged lower, weighed by the Iran conflict and ongoing economic concerns. At the same time, prediction markets tied to the prospect of Trump facing impeachment before his term concludes have registered a clear increase in activity this … Read more
Washington Attorney General Nick Brown filed a civil lawsuit against prediction market platform KalshiEx LLC this week, alleging the company runs an illegal online gambling operation in violation of state law. Is Kalshi Legal in Washington State? AG Says No, Files Suit The complaint, filed in King County Superior Court, targets Kalshi‘s binary event contracts, … Read more
The Pentagon is moving tens of thousands of troops into the Middle East and drawing up contingency plans for limited ground raids inside Iran, but no U.S. forces have entered Iranian territory as of March 29, 2026, at 5 p.m. Eastern time. What Trump Is Deciding About Iran Ground Troops — And What Has Actually … Read more
Kalshi gained regulatory approval to offer margin trading after its affiliate Kinetic Markets LLC was registered as a futures commission merchant with the National Futures Association on March 24, 2026. Kalshi Margin Trading Approved The NFA filing lists Kinetic Markets as both an FCM and swap firm. Bloomberg was the first to report on the … Read more
California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Friday barring gubernatorial appointees from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. California Bans Gubernatorial Appointees From Betting on Prediction Markets With Non-Public Information The order takes effect immediately. It extends California’s existing conflict-of-interest statutes directly to prediction markets, which … Read more
Markets have sharply repriced Federal Reserve expectations, with near-term rate hike probabilities now edging out cuts for the first time since the easing cycle began. Rate Expectations Shift Sharply as Fed Holds and Markets Reassess The shift, captured by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s Market Probability Tracker, marks a notable turn from early 2026, when … Read more
Congress is stepping into the fast-growing prediction market arena, aiming to draw a hard line between financial contracts and what lawmakers say looks a lot like gambling. Prediction Markets Under Fire as Senate Eyes Sports Betting Ban According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal and Sports Business Journal, U.S. Senators Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and … Read more
Kalshi has raised over $1 billion, increasing its valuation to $22 billion in just three months, signaling strong investor confidence despite regulatory challenges. Hyper-Growth in the ‘ Oracle Economy’ The U.S.-regulated prediction market, Kalshi, has reportedly raised more than $1 billion in a new financing round, catapulting its valuation to a staggering $22 billion. The … Read more
A State Judge signed a restraining order barring the company from offering some kinds of prediction market contracts in the state, as the battle between state and federal regulators accelerates. Kalshi also faces similar allegations in other states, like Arizona. Kalshi Faces Restraining Order in Nevada for Acting as an Unlicensed Gaming Business The conflict … Read more
Markets are leaning heavily toward a Federal Reserve pause following this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, with traders signaling little belief that policymakers will pivot under pressure at the April 29, 2026, meeting. Markets Show Little Faith in Fed Rate Cuts After March While Fed Chair Jerome Powell sits in office, until his … Read more