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In 2025, prediction markets stopped acting like a sideshow and started behaving like a real financial category. Prediction Markets Go Mainstream What began as a niche experiment in forecasting elections and sports quietly evolved into a multibillion-dollar ecosystem touching Wall Street, media giants, professional sports, and crypto infrastructure. From regulatory victories and courtroom battles to … Read more
After a flood of documents and photographs from the Jeffrey Epstein files dropped this month, even more material from the sprawling archive is expected to roll out under a U.S. Department of Justice release required by the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Since then, a Polymarket wager titled “Who will be named in newly released Epstein … Read more
On Friday, Draftkings launched a standalone predictions app regulated under federal commodities law, formally entering the growing U.S. prediction markets sector and expanding beyond traditional sports betting into event-based contract trading. Draftkings Brings Event Contracts to U.S. Users via New Predictions Platform Draftkings announced the debut of Draftkings Predictions on Dec. 19, introducing a mobile … Read more
With bitcoin off 5.5% for the month of December on a returns basis, plenty of eyes are squinting at the chart and asking what comes next. To size things up, we leaned into the wisdom of the crowd and peeked at what today’s most active prediction markets are betting on. Myriad Bettors Still Favor $100K, … Read more
After the U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed the benchmark interest rate last week, attention now shifts to the Jan. 28, 2026, meeting, where current odds suggest the central bank is poised to leave the target rate exactly where it is. A Few Days Following the Last Cut, Traders Price in a January Fed Pause When it … Read more
Over the past year, tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have heated up heading into late 2025 under President Trump, marked by U.S. maritime strikes, tanker seizures, and sanctions aimed squarely at Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Polymarket bettors say the odds of Maduro being pushed from power are ticking higher, with a 21% chance it happens … Read more
Odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve trimming the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) jumped on Tuesday, signaling that futures traders and prediction markets have all but planted a flag on a quarter-point cut as the likely outcome. Market Goes All-In on a Quarter-Point Trim Most of Wall Street’s major indexes … Read more
Odds on Polymarket that President Trump will declassify UFO files in 2025 have rocketed upward, igniting a fresh wave of speculation about what might finally slip out of the classified vault. UFO Disclosure Hype Sends Polymarket ‘Yes’ Shares Soaring Polymarket traders are piling into the “Yes” side of a high-stakes wager: Will President Trump declassify … Read more
According to the latest figures, President Donald Trump has logged 320 days of his second term, and his approval rating has slipped from the brief highs that followed his Jan. 20 inauguration. Meanwhile, prediction markets indicate Democrats are currently positioned to snag a few congressional slots, giving them a legitimate opening to reclaim a House … Read more
Polymarket officially reentered the U.S. on Wednesday with the rollout of its new mobile app to waitlisted users, marking its first domestic availability since 2021. Polymarket’s Mobile App Marks Its First Step Back Into the United States Polymarket announced Wednesday that its U.S. app is now live in a phased rollout, restoring American access to … Read more
