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Markets are leaning heavily toward a Federal Reserve pause following this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, with traders signaling little belief that policymakers will pivot under pressure at the April 29, 2026, meeting. Markets Show Little Faith in Fed Rate Cuts After March While Fed Chair Jerome Powell sits in office, until his … Read more
Arizona prosecutors have filed charges against prediction market operator Kalshi, alleging the company ran an unlicensed gambling operation and accepted illegal election wagers within the state. Prediction Market Kalshi Charged in Arizona for Sports and Election Betting Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes on March 17 filed a 20-count criminal information in Maricopa County Superior Court … Read more
Prediction markets tracking U.S. politics are heating up as traders wager millions on the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race, with activity on Polymarket and Kalshi revealing how bettors think Washington’s next political chapter might unfold. Traders Rotate Bets as Democrats Lead Midterm Odds and Rubio, Newsom Rise in 2028 Race The “Balance of … Read more
Customers of Clear, a brand of the XP Group, who hold an international investment account, will be able to participate in regulated prediction markets. XP is the first company to bring regulated prediction markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financial and economic events. Kalshi Partners With XP to Bring Regulated Prediction Markets to … Read more
According to a recent report, the two heavyweight prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, are said to be chatting with prospective backers about fresh fundraising rounds. Current figures place Kalshi’s valuation near $11 billion and Polymarket’s around $9 billion, and if capital does come calling, each company is eyeing a lofty $20 billion post-money valuation. Polymarket … Read more
Traders are suing prediction market Kalshi after a controversial contract tied to Iran’s supreme leader sparked a payout dispute, igniting legal questions about how geopolitical event markets resolve outcomes and interpret rules. Traders Sue Kalshi, Claim Prediction Market Platform Uses ‘Death Carveout’ to Escape Massive Payouts Traders are challenging a prediction market platform after alleging … Read more
While Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour explained that the company did not list markets tied to the death of any personality because it goes against U.S. regulations, users are preparing legal actions against the company over the market settlement. Kalshi Might Face Legal Action Over Iran’s Regime Change Market Settlement Kalshi, one of the largest regulated … Read more
Prediction markets are crackling with activity after the United States, in coordination with Israel, carried out major airstrikes against Iran. At present, traders are pricing in a 46% probability that the Iranian regime will fall by June 30, and following the latest strike, it emerged that several market participants pocketed gains by calling the timing … Read more
The prediction market platform Kalshi had revealed that it recently banned and fined a former California gubernatorial candidate and a Mrbeast Youtube editor for insider trading. Detection and Surveillance The prediction market platform Kalshi announced Feb. 25 that it has blocked a former California gubernatorial candidate and an editor for the Youtube channel Mrbeast for … Read more
All eyes are fixed on President Trump’s next move after the Supreme Court ruled he lacked authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to slap sweeping “emergency” tariffs on nearly all imports. Now, prediction markets reveal bettors tossing down stacks, wagering on what comes next in this high-stakes political sequel. Markets Bet … Read more