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Markets have priced out every Federal Reserve rate cut for 2026 as a U.S.-Israel war with Iran sends oil past $110 per barrel and consumer gas prices toward $4 a gallon. Key Takeaways: Fed funds futures on CME show a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting. WTI … Read more
Markets have sharply repriced Federal Reserve expectations, with near-term rate hike probabilities now edging out cuts for the first time since the easing cycle began. Rate Expectations Shift Sharply as Fed Holds and Markets Reassess The shift, captured by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s Market Probability Tracker, marks a notable turn from early 2026, when … Read more
The Bank of Japan held interest rates at 0.75%, citing global uncertainty and rising inflation risks linked to energy prices. Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a cautious but flexible approach to future policy shifts. Governor Ueda Flags Inflation Risks, Keeps Rates Steady The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday, … Read more
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday, brushing aside public pressure from President Donald Trump and signaling a cautious stance as economic crosscurrents persist. FOMC Holds the Line on Rates The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, opting for patience despite … Read more
On Monday afternoon, U.S. President Donald Trump called on the Federal Reserve to convene a “special meeting” and cut U.S. interest rates immediately, intensifying his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just days before the central bank’s scheduled policy gathering. President Pressures Fed for Immediate Rate Cut as FOMC Meeting Nears Speaking to reporters, … Read more
The U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wrapped up its two-day meeting on Wednesday, issuing a policy statement that said the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged. During the first FOMC meeting of 2026, held Jan. 27-28, and amid political pressure from President Trump to cut rates, the Fed said borrowing … Read more
Eyes are now on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as the central bank is poised to make a bold move next week, raising its short-term interbank rate and sending shockwaves through global markets. BOJ Rate Hike Countdown: Markets Say the Odds Are Nearly Locked In Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed the federal funds … Read more
After the U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed the benchmark interest rate last week, attention now shifts to the Jan. 28, 2026, meeting, where current odds suggest the central bank is poised to leave the target rate exactly where it is. A Few Days Following the Last Cut, Traders Price in a January Fed Pause When it … Read more
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by a quarter point on Dec. 10, 2025, matching what CME futures, Polymarket, and Kalshi bettors had been signaling for weeks. The U.S. central bank’s widely anticipated move drops the target range to 3.5%–3.75%, a shift officials tied to evolving risks across the economy and persistent uncertainty … Read more
Odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve trimming the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) jumped on Tuesday, signaling that futures traders and prediction markets have all but planted a flag on a quarter-point cut as the likely outcome. Market Goes All-In on a Quarter-Point Trim Most of Wall Street’s major indexes … Read more