interest rates

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January Odds Scream ‘No Rate Change’ While Powell Shuts Down New Fed Chair Chatter

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After the U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed the benchmark interest rate last week, attention now shifts to the Jan. 28, 2026, meeting, where current odds suggest the central bank is poised to leave the target rate exactly where it is. A Few Days Following the Last Cut, Traders Price in a January Fed Pause When it … Read more

Federal Reserve Pulls the Trigger on a Quarter-Point Cut

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The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by a quarter point on Dec. 10, 2025, matching what CME futures, Polymarket, and Kalshi bettors had been signaling for weeks. The U.S. central bank’s widely anticipated move drops the target range to 3.5%–3.75%, a shift officials tied to evolving risks across the economy and persistent uncertainty … Read more

Markets Bet the Farm on a Fed Cut — Now Everyone’s Bracing for the Aftershock

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Odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve trimming the federal funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) jumped on Tuesday, signaling that futures traders and prediction markets have all but planted a flag on a quarter-point cut as the likely outcome. Market Goes All-In on a Quarter-Point Trim Most of Wall Street’s major indexes … Read more

Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump to 84% on Thanksgiving as Traders Lean Into December Shift

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Odds of a December quarter-point rate cut have marched sharply higher this Thanksgiving, with prediction markets and rate-tracking tools showing traders are almost fully convinced the Federal Reserve will trim its benchmark. December 25bps Cut Now Dominant Market Bet Ahead of Fed Meeting Prediction platforms are now lighting up with overwhelming confidence in a 25-basis-point … Read more

Fed Governor Stephen Miran Calls for ‘Large’ Rate Cuts Amid Rising Jobless Data

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Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the U.S. economy needs “large interest rate cuts,” telling Fox Business on Tuesday that rising unemployment signals monetary policy is overly restrictive. Stephen Miran Pushes for Big Fed Rate Cuts Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Tuesday that the U.S. economy requires “large interest rate cuts,” telling Fox Business … Read more

CME Futures and Betting Markets Align on Fed’s Potential Quarter-Point Cut in December

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Prediction markets are stacking their chips on a modest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, even as policymakers publicly wrestle with conflicting data and internal divisions. Rate-Cut Odds Swing as Bettors React to Fed Rifts and Patchy Data Prediction markets are sending a clear message ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 9–10 meeting: … Read more

Fed Officials Split as Markets Price in December Rate Cut

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The Federal Reserve’s December policy decision is shaping up as a battle between officials worried about inflation’s persistence and those focused on weakening employment and demand. Traders Bet on Rate Cut Despite Fed’s Growing Divide Over Inflation According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, traders now assign a 65.4% probability that the central bank will lower … Read more

Kalshi, Polymarket, and CME Agree: The Fed’s About to Cut

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On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s big day, prediction markets and futures are practically winking at traders—betting on a quarter-point rate cut. Analysts and crypto watchers alike are bracing for what could be a double shot of caffeine for both bitcoin and U.S. equities if Jerome Powell’s crew keeps trimming rates through 2025. Markets … Read more

Fed Rate Watch: Consensus Leans Hard Toward a Quarter-Point Slice

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Traders have practically written in pen a quarter-point cut, daring the U.S. Federal Reserve to prove them wrong at October’s meeting ahead. Quarter-Point Trim Leads the Board for October’s Fed Decision CME’s Fedwatch tool puts numbers to the hunch: with the target currently at 4.00% to 4.25%, the Oct. 29 path most favored is a … Read more