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Goldman Sachs Lowers US Recession Risk to 20%

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Goldman Sachs economists have lowered the likelihood of a U.S. recession within the next year from 25% to 20%, citing recent data on retail sales and jobless claims. If the upcoming August jobs report, scheduled for release on September 6, shows favorable results, the probability of a recession may be further reduced to 15%, which … Read more

UBS Urges Caution Despite Positive US Economic Data

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UBS reported on Friday that U.S. stocks extended their rally as new economic data, including a 1% rise in July retail sales, eased concerns about a potential recession. Despite the encouraging consumer resilience, UBS cautioned that the risk of a significant economic slowdown remains, especially after weaker July jobs data. Investors are advised to wait … Read more

Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Indicate Strong Odds for September Rate Cut

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Right now, the market is leaning towards the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate at the Sept. 18, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool currently indicates a 75% likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Over on Polymarket, bettors are even more confident, showing an 82% chance of … Read more

Robert Kiyosaki Advises Preparing for Crash Landing — Says ‘Time to Save Yourself’

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Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has explained why he is preparing for a crash landing. He criticized U.S. leadership, including Vice President Kamala Harris, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, calling them “3-Stooges.” Kiyosaki advised his followers to invest in gold, silver, and bitcoin, emphasizing self-reliance over relying on the … Read more

Peter Schiff Urges the Fed to Raise Rates and Let Markets Crash

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Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff has recommended that the Federal Reserve raise interest rates instead of cutting them, even if it leads to a market crash. He acknowledged that this approach would likely cause stocks and real estate to crash, result in a hard landing, and trigger a recession, emphasizing the potential severity of … Read more

JPMorgan Prepares Investors for September Rate Cut With Dual Investment Approach

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Favorable economic data this week bolstered market confidence, leading to a strong rally in equities, JPMorgan explained in a report published on Friday. With the Federal Reserve now likely to cut interest rates in September, the global investment bank advises investors to prepare by adjusting their portfolios accordingly. The futures market predicts a 100% chance … Read more

Claudia Sahm Warns Fed: Delayed Rate Cuts Could Spur Unnecessary Recession

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In a detailed discussion with Kitco News, Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and chief economist at New Century Advisors, shared her insights on the U.S. economy. Despite rising recession concerns, Sahm emphasized that the current labor market still shows strength, suggesting the economy may not yet be in a recession. Claudia Sahm on U.S. … Read more

CPI Report Sparks Fed Rate Cut Hopes as Inflation Slows to 2.9%

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On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics rolled out its latest consumer-price index (CPI) report, revealing a 2.9% increase over the past 12 months through July—falling just short of economists’ 3% forecast. This data nudged CME futures metrics upward, reflecting growing market sentiment that the latest BLS figures strengthen the case for a Federal … Read more