Trade wars’ impact on stocks

Markets don’t like surprises – and they really don’t like trade wars. 

When the US announced its 145% tariff on Chinese imports in April 2025, the response from Wall Street was swift and brutal. The S&P 500 tanked more than 10% in just two days. Tech stocks took it even harder, with the Nasdaq shedding nearly 20% since the start of the year.

Still, if you’ve watched the markets through past trade fights, this was all pretty familiar. In 2018–19, during the first round of US-China tariff battles, every tweet about negotiations or new duties sent stocks whipsawing. And if you zoom way out, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 is one of the earliest and most notorious examples as tariffs piled up, global trade shrank and the Great Depression got worse.

So why do stocks get hit so hard? A few reasons. Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, which squeezes profit margins for companies that rely on international supply chains. When a carmaker or electronics brand has to pay more for components, that cost either eats into profits or gets passed on to customers. Either way, it’s bad news for earnings, and earnings are what drive stock valuations.

There’s also the fear factor. Trade wars inject a lot of uncertainty into the economy. Will more tariffs follow? Will other countries retaliate? That kind of unpredictability causes companies to delay investments and hiring, while consumers may start pulling back on spending. This shows up as increased market volatility, often tracked by the VIX, Wall Street’s so-called “fear index,” which tends to spike in times like this.

Central banks sometimes try to cushion the blow by tweaking interest rates or injecting liquidity. But there’s only so much they can do when the root of the problem is political. 

Did you know? On April 9, 2025, Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most countries. He explained the pause by saying people were getting “a little bit yippy,” his way of describing nervousness in the markets.

When tariffs hit, crypto takes a punch, then bounces back

The tariffs hit crypto, too, but the market recovered just days later, reflecting crypto’s volatile yet responsive nature during global uncertainty.

After Trump’s new tariffs were announced, Bitcoin slid to around $76,000. Ethereum and other major tokens followed suit, and around $200 billion was wiped off the total crypto market cap in a few days.

Again, this kind of sell-off isn’t unusual. When uncertainty spikes – like during a sudden escalation in global trade tensions – investors tend to play it safe. That means pulling out of more volatile assets, including crypto, and moving into what’s seen as safer ground, like cash or bonds. It’s a classic “risk-off” move.

But as you’ve seen before, crypto doesn’t stay down for long. By mid-April, Bitcoin had bounced back and was trading at just under $85,000. Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and other major altcoins also recovered some ground. For many investors, this rebound was a reminder that while crypto is volatile, it’s also increasingly viewed as a valuable hedge, something outside the reach of any government or policy decision.

In 2018–19, during an earlier round of US-China tensions, Bitcoin showed similar patterns: short-term drops followed by fast recoveries. And earlier in 2025, new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports triggered a dip that quickly reversed.

Stocks, meanwhile, tend to have a tougher time recovering. As of April, the S&P 500 is down nearly 9% for 2025, and the Nasdaq is off more than 13%. There was a brief lift after the US paused some tariffs for 90 days, but overall, the mood in equity markets remains shaky. 

What trade wars mean for supply chains and consumers

The ripple effects of the 2025 trade war are grinding through global supply chains, one industry at a time. 

From electronics to autos to medicine, the cost of moving goods worldwide is rising. Let’s talk about a few industries in particular. 

Trade wars’ impact on electronics and semiconductors

Electronics are at the heart of it. In 2024, the US imported $146 billion of electronics from China. With tariffs on those goods jumping, companies could be looking at an added $182 billion in annual costs if these rates stick around.

This is also a problem for consumers. Take Apple, for example. With no lasting exemption for phones, an iPhone 16 Pro Max could climb from $1,199 to over $1,800. Add in uncertainty about future duties on laptops, chips and smart devices, and the entire sector is on edge. 

Trade wars’ impact on the automotive industry

Carmakers are in a similar bind. The US has raised tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles from 25% to more than 100%. And it’s not just the finished cars — batteries, chips, and other parts sourced from China are also caught in the crossfire.

For electric vehicle manufacturers, in particular, this is a serious hit. Chinese battery components are essential for many US and European EV brands. With supply chains suddenly tangled in red tape and higher costs, some automakers are pausing production or switching suppliers.

Trade wars’ impact on pharmaceuticals

Even the healthcare system is feeling it. The US depends heavily on China for key medical supplies and pharmaceutical ingredients. With new tariffs, prices are climbing, and existing shortages are worsening.

Industry experts are warning of major disruptions. Everything from common medications to hospital-grade equipment is likely to get more expensive. And in a healthcare system already under pressure, even a small bottleneck can cause big problems down the line.

Did you know? European markets are already seeing signs of a spillover. Chinese exporters, locked out of the US by tariffs, are redirecting goods to Europe, especially in tech and consumer goods.

Rising tariffs, shaky markets, what’s next?

The big picture regarding the 2025 US-China trade war still looks hazy amid real implications for investors, business leaders and policymakers worldwide.

Let’s examine the short-, medium- and long-term outlooks. 

Short-term

There’s been a bit of short-term relief. When the US announced exemptions on some tech products – like smartphones and laptops – from the harshest tariffs, markets breathed a sigh of relief. The S&P 500 saw an uptick, and global markets followed suit. Tech-heavy Asian indexes rallied, and European markets, including Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100, climbed. Even US bank earnings helped push optimism a bit further.

Still, it’s probably temporary. These exemptions are under review, and the bigger trade policy feels like shifting sand. 

Medium-term

Looking ahead a bit further, the risks start to grow. If the trade conflict drags on, it could seriously slow down global growth. JPMorgan recently raised its global recession risk to 60%, and that’s no small thing. Central banks are already weighing their next moves; interest rate adjustments, coordinated actions, and contingency planning are all back on the table.

Some voices, like former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, call for a global response similar to what we saw during the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, businesses are rethinking their supply chains and scrambling to find alternatives, something that’s easier said than done.

Long-term 

You’re seeing a pivot with nations exploring new trade deals and trying to reduce reliance on traditional powerhouses. China, for example, is pushing harder to internationalize the yuan and accelerate its Belt and Road Initiative. Conversely, the US is leaning into domestic manufacturing and trying to reduce its dependence on imports.

And the consequences could be massive. The WTO has warned that trade between the US and China could shrink by as much as 80%. That’s a huge shift, considering these two countries account for about 3% of global trade. If that drop materializes, it could rattle the global economy.