Polymarket Study Finds 3.14% Drive Accuracy

A new academic study finds that prediction market accuracy on Polymarket comes from a small group of informed traders, not the broad crowd of participants the industry typically credits. Key Takeaways: Researchers from London Business School and Yale found only 3.14% of Polymarket accounts qualify as skilled, yet generate most price discovery. Skilled Polymarket traders … Read more

Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC

Prediction markets and CME futures traders have converged on one outcome ahead of the April 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady, and likely will continue doing so well into the summer. Key Takeaways: CME Fedwatch puts a Fed hold at 99% for the April 29 FOMC meeting, … Read more

Miners Beat Bitcoin by 70% in 2026 as Terawulf Locks $12.8B in AI Contracts

The bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure sector has had a split personality through the first four months of 2026. Bitcoin itself opened the year around $88,700 and has spent most of its time grinding lower, sitting around $76,000 to $78,000 as April comes to a close, a loss of roughly 12% since January 1. Against … Read more

The Beat Goes On: Saylor’s New Bitcoin Chart Sharpens Accumulation Watch After Major BTC Buy

Strategy’s bitcoin positioning drew renewed attention as Michael Saylor revived his orange-dot chart. The update followed last week’s major BTC purchase and sharpened focus on Strategy’s accumulation pattern. Key Takeaways: Strategy drew fresh market attention after Michael Saylor posted another orange-dot bitcoin chart. The update followed Strategy’s major bitcoin purchase from the prior week. Saylor’s … Read more

Bitcoin Stumbles at $78,500 as Hourly Momentum Stalls

Bitcoin is hovering near the upper end of its 24-hour range, but the charts are not handing out free confidence. At $77,989, bitcoin looks constructive, though short-term momentum is starting to act like it needs a coffee. Key Takeaways: Bitcoin holds $77,989 on April 26, 2026, consolidating near $78K with neutral signals. TradingView data shows … Read more

‘The Whole World Is a Casino’ – Bitcoin Rallies Again, and so Does Belief – Week in Review

This editorial is from last week’s edition of the newsletter Week in Review. Subscribe to the newsletter to get this weekly editorial the second it’s finished. The newsletter also includes the biggest stories of the week with a comment on each story. Key Takeaways: Bitcoin neared $80K as Ki Young Ju flagged a 30% rebound, … Read more

Latam Insights: Brazil Bans Predictions Markets, Report Highlights Region’s Mining Potential

Welcome to Latam Insights, a compilation of the most relevant crypto news from Latin America over the past week. In this edition, Brazil issues a blanket ban on non-financial prediction markets, Hashrate Index highlights the potential for bitcoin mining growth in the region, and Brazil’s largest bank invests in bitcoin mining. Key Takeaways: On April … Read more

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